THE SILENT MAJORITY: HOW ETHNIC COMMUNITIES COULD DECIDE CANADA’S ELECTORAL FATE

While Carney and Poilievre exchange scripted jabs on the debate stage and mainstream commentators dissect tariff threats, a powerful political undercurrent is emerging in Canada’s ethnic communities—one that could upend polling projections and determine which party forms government on April 28.
MIREMS’ multilingual media monitoring reveals a parallel campaign unfolding outside the English and French-speaking mainstream. In this space, immigration—not tariffs—dominates discussion. These voices, often marginalized in national discourse, may ultimately deliver the final verdict.


THE IMMIGRATION BETRAYAL: PUNJABI MEDIA REFLECTS DISILLUSIONMENT
The Liberal Party’s pivot from its once-open immigration stance has fractured long-standing loyalties in Punjabi-language media—a space that once reliably leaned red. The tone is now one of disappointment and frustration.
“Many immigrants are leaving Canada to go to other countries or return home,” reported Arsh Chawla on CJMR 1320 AM’s Rangla Punjab, capturing widespread concern about a loss of talent in sectors like healthcare, where staffing shortages are already critical. The economic ripple effects are visible, including falling rental demand in student neighborhoods as international students disappear.
More politically damaging is the silence from both major parties on the future of those same students. “Neither the Liberals nor the Conservatives are talking about whether they have any plans to provide a pathway to permanent residency for these students,” noted one caller to Radio Humsafar.
This neglect could prove costly in the 905 region of Ontario, where dense immigrant populations often decide tight races. For now, both major parties appear more concerned with not alienating anti-immigration voters than with retaining traditional immigrant support.


TRUMP’S “51ST STATE” TALK: NOT LOST IN TRANSLATION, BUT REFRAMED
While much of English-speaking Canada recoiled at Donald Trump’s “51st state” comments, Hindi-language outlet Amar Ujala provided a radically different interpretation. The publication emphasized Press Secretary Leavitt’s framing of annexation as an economic opportunity, quoting Trump as saying, “the people of Canada will benefit greatly by becoming the 51st state.”
This reframing reveals a strategic blind spot in Canadian politics—the assumption that all communities respond to nationalist rhetoric in the same way. For audiences with strong transnational ties, economic pragmatism can outweigh traditional notions of sovereignty.


“LIKE ONE OF US”: WHY LIBERAL BRAND LOYALTY ENDURES
Despite policy backtracking and Carney’s technocratic image, the Liberal Party continues to benefit from cultural affinity within some immigrant communities. “The Liberals seem familiar—like one of us,” a 60-year resident said on CHLO AM 530’s Guntas Radio, capturing a recurring theme: emotional identification can outweigh policy disappointment.
In contrast, Conservative messaging often focuses on economic management, with limited cultural engagement. While Poilievre’s cost-of-living platform resonates in part, it’s met with concern among others. “The Conservatives' policies are said to make cuts to many things, including jobs and benefits,” one caller warned.
The core battleground here is not purely policy—it’s cultural trust. This intangible factor continues to elude traditional polling methodologies.


QUEBEC NATIONALISM THROUGH A RUSSIAN LENS
Russian-language outlet Nash Montreal provided a detailed analysis of how both Carney and Poilievre invoked the nationalist slogan maîtres chez nous (“masters in our own home”) during their televised appearances on Tout le monde en parle.
The coverage highlighted how both leaders co-opted Quebec's sovereignty rhetoric to stake claims to economic nationalism, while accusing one another of hollow promises. “The Prime Minister responded with a smile, noting that Poilievre seemed to hear him—‘and that’s good!’” Nash Montreal reported, capturing the theatrical nature of their rivalry.
This kind of bilingual performance politics is carefully parsed in ethnic media—and increasingly influential.


CAPITAL PUNISHMENT: AN UNEXPECTED ECHO
In a surprising turn, the issue of capital punishment surfaced in Punjabi-language political discussions. A caller to Radio Humsafar’s Khabarsar suggested, “Instead of spending resources on keeping such criminals alive in prison, Canada should consider reintroducing capital punishment,” in response to Poilievre’s tough-on-crime stance.
No major party has broached the subject, yet its emergence in ethnic discourse illustrates how communities may interpret messages through unexpected cultural or legal frameworks. These unintended consequences underscore the risks of one-size-fits-all campaign messaging.


“POLLS ARE PROPAGANDA”: DISTRUST IN THE SYSTEM
Perhaps the most politically consequential insight is the deep skepticism toward polling itself. Across multiple language platforms, callers voiced concerns about manipulation (“The Liberals are rigging the opinion polls”) and questioned the validity of surveys altogether.
This level of distrust, if widespread, undermines one of the core tools political campaigns use to navigate elections. If large segments of the electorate no longer believe in polling, the stage is set for outcomes that defy conventional forecasting—akin to Brexit or Trump’s 2016 win.


THE VERDICT: A NEW ELECTORAL KINGMAKER EMERGES
As national campaigns focus on televised debates and English-language coverage, they risk missing the real story: the ethnic vote is more influential—and more complex—than ever.
MIREMS’ media monitoring shows that immigration policy, cultural familiarity, and economic pragmatism drive engagement in multicultural communities. These factors rarely surface in mainstream coverage, yet they dominate discussion in key battleground ridings.
The question isn’t whether ethnic communities will shape the outcome of the 2025 election—it’s whether political leaders will realize their power in time.


MIREMS stands at the intersection of language and politics, monitoring over 1,000 media outlets in 30+ languages across Canada. Our multilingual insights reveal what polls miss and focus groups can’t reach—the authentic voices shaping the nation’s political future.

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